Wildfire Exposure, Structure Risk, and Vulnerability Assessments

Understanding Wildfire Exposure

This short video explains wildfire exposure and how it should or should not be used.

Wildfire Exposure Assessment

The tools and techniques applied and evaluated here are collectively called Wildfire Exposure Assessment, a process developed and published by Jennifer L. Beverly (University of Alberta) and others.

Please see the technical report on the Wildfire Exposure approach and the article published in Natural Hazards called “Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communities“.

What is Wildfire Exposure?

Wildfire exposure represents the likelihood that wildfire will get to and impact a location. Exposure is increased where accumulations of elevated flammability hazard are found. Range: 0-100

What is flammability hazard?

This is also called Hazardous Fuel. This is vegetation that has the potential to cause damage, loss, or harm to people, infrastructure, equipment, natural resources, or property due to its flammability (i.e. short and long-range ember spotting and intense burning). Range: 0-100

Map showing low RPS near Anchorage, Alaska — Although this area near Anchorage has a low RPS, spruce-dominated areas outlined in red have high wildfire exposure.

image of shrubs, with a few dead trees mixed in, spruce trees along the left side and back of the shrubs — Spruce vegetation contributes to high wildfire exposure in this area near Anchorage, Alaska.

Regional Maps

Check out our regional wildfire exposure maps.

View Alaska (statewide) map

View Anchorage map

View Fairbanks map

View Whitehorse, Yukon map

Wildfire Exposure with Tundra: Bristol Bay Region

Check out our Bristol Bay wildfire hazard and risk assessment report.

Schmidt J.I., Mair H., Larson O., and Delamere J. (2025), Wildfire Exposure and Risk Assessment for Dillingham, Aleknagik, and Igiugig, Alaska. University of Alaska.

Wildfire Exposure with Tundra: Bristol Bay Region — View Bristol Bay region map

Wildfire Exposure ArcGIS Pro Toolbox

This tool is designed to allow users to calculate wildfire hazard fuels and exposure values from gridded vegetation data. It has been modified for Alaska, as shown in the figures below.

View ArcGIS Pro Toolbox

How the assessment works

The wildfire exposure assessment uses land-cover data to classify flammability hazard and calculate wildfire exposure at 100 and 500 meter distances. The figures below show the assessment process and the vegetation classifications used to adapt the methodology for Alaska.

Flow chart detailing the exposure methods used to identify wildfire exposure values. — Figure of the wildfire exposure assessment process as modified for Alaska.

Table of the hazardous vegetation and their classifications in the Anchorage, Fairbanks, Yukon, and Whitehorse regions. — Flammability hazard classification for the Anchorage (A), Fairbanks (F), and Whitehorse, Yukon (Wh) regions.

Data Layers

The following data layers are available for download. Note, the 2024 layers contain wildfire scars through 2023.

ABoVE

LANDFIRE

MOSAIC & Symbology

Why is there a need for a locally developed product?

40% of Alaskans live in Anchorage. Risk to Potential Structures (RPS) assessments do not capture the elevated risk from fires within the wild-land urban interface. For example, wildfires in Southcentral Alaska do occur even though RPS classifies most of the region as very low risk.

The Anchorage, Alaska Risk to Potential Structure (RPS) maps fail to capture risk from fires within the wildland-urban interface. The wildfire exposure map reveals high risk areas that aren't labeled as such in the RPS map. — This comparison between Wildfire Exposure and RPS displays how regions can be labeled as low RPS, but still have high wildfire exposure.

Does your community have a pathway of high wildfire exposure?

Check out the State of Alaska’s Wildfire Directional Vulnerability Assessment app to see if your community is vulnerable. This approach is modified from Beverly, J. L., & Forbes, A. M. (2023). Assessing directional vulnerability to wildfire. Natural Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-023-05885-3 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-023-05885-3

If you do not see your community there, but want to, email me (Jen Schmidt, jischmidt@alaska.edu).

Directionality Assessment with Wildfire Exposure

Strategic placement of fuel treatments
3, 5, and 10 mile buffers
Tangents > 70% in high exposure
Identifies vulnerable wind directions
Good for smaller communities, but needs work for larger communities

Publications

Schmidt J.I., Ziel R., Calef M., Varvak A. (2026) Fueling fire-adapted communities through a rapid wildfire structure risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 17: 351–36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00716-y
Schmidt, J.I., Mair H., Larson O., Delamere J. (2026) Wildfire Exposure and Risk Assessment for Dillingham, Aleknagik, and Igiugig, Alaska. University of Alaska, Anchorage. https://scholarworks.alaska.edu/handle/11122/16310
Alaska Wildfire Exposure Assessment and Fuels Planning in R10. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hzT-aOCTfSB7AGozTH06RNEY–25gbvn/view?usp=drive_link
Ziel R., Schmidt J.I., Calef M., Varvak A. (2024) Mapping the wildfire threat to boreal communities. Available at https://www.frames.gov/catalog/69574
Schmidt J.I., Calef M., Varvak A., and Ziel R. (2024) Spatial Distribution of Wildfire Threat in the Far North: Exposure Assessment in Boreal Communities. Natural Hazards. Volume 120, pages 4901–4924. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-023-06365-4
Schmidt J.I., See J. (2023) Advancing Wildfire Preparedness and Planning in Anchorage Wildfire Exposure and Egress Study. http://hdl.handle.net/11122/16292
Schwoerer T., Schmidt J.I., Berman M. Bienik P., Farquharson L.M, Nicolsky D., Powell J., Roberts R., Thoman R., Ziel R. (2023) Nordic homeowners’ mitigation response to multi-hazard climate risk. Ambio, Volume 53, pages 389–405. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-023-01951-z
Calef M.P., Schmidt J.I., Varvak A., and Ziel R. (2023) Predicting the Unpredictable: Predicting Landcover in Boreal Alaska and the Yukon Including Succession and Wildfire Potential. Forests, 14(8), 1577. https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/8/1577
Schmidt J.I., Larson, O. (2023) Report for AK PANOCESU Collaborative Effort to Develop a Statewide Wildfire Exposure Map (L22AC00566) https://scholarworks.alaska.edu/handle/11122/16291

Partners

This work would not be possible without the support from many agencies and people. NSF support was provided by the following awards: NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations (AURA): a co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards. Award Number:1927563; NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Socio-ecological considerations for sustainAble Fuel treatments to Reduce wildfire Risk (SAFRR) Award Number: 212728.